Trump Turns Focus To Cuba After Venezuela

For decades, Venezuela and Cuba were closely linked, largely because of oil. Energy supplies from Caracas helped keep Cuba’s economy running and shaped its political and strategic direction. With Nicolás Maduro now under arrest, that long-standing arrangement is shifting, opening the door to a challenging chapter for Cuba. Amid this, Donald Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba, making the situation even tougher. Soon after Venezuela’s leader was taken by US forces, Trump said he thought Cuba’s leadership could also collapse before long.

Trump is now pressing Cuba to agree to terms, warning that the days of Venezuelan oil and financial support are over. Trump didn’t go into details about what such a deal would involve or what might happen if Cuba refused. Cuba’s foreign minister, Bruno Rodriguez, said the country has every right to buy fuel from any willing supplier, without being blocked or pressured by U.S. sanctions. Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel also stated that no one dictates the nation’s decisions. The President said in a post on X that Cuba does not start conflicts but has faced attacks from the US for 66 years, and that while it does not issue threats, it remains prepared to defend the nation at all costs.

Venezuela has traditionally been Cuba’s main source of oil, but in the weeks since the US captured Maduro, tankers loaded in Venezuelan ports haven’t sailed to the island under the current American oil blockade, according to shipping records. Cuba usually consumes just over 100,000 barrels of oil a day, with a significant portion coming from Venezuela. Experts warn that if that supply is disrupted, the island could struggle to cover even basic energy needs, since it can’t easily replace the lost oil by buying fuel on the open market. Without oil, Cuba’s frequent power outages could intensify, leaving residents with only a handful of hours of electricity daily.

Cuba has been struggling with economic problems for years, and things got worse after the Covid-19 pandemic. Since 2020, over 2.7 million people have left the island, with most heading to the US. Experts reportedly say one reason the US might avoid intervening in Cuba is that the island has little to offer economically. Unlike oil-rich Venezuela, Cuba has few resources. At the same time, being only 90 miles from the US, any collapse could cause a rush of migrants and create security problems, something Washington would want to avoid.