US-Venezuela Standoff: What Could Happen Next?

With the US increasing its military presence in the region and tensions continuing to rise, many feel that a military clash between the US and Venezuela no longer seems like a distant possibility but something drawing worryingly close. The Trump administration has launched repeated attacks on Venezuelan boats in recent months, saying the targets were linked to drug smuggling. But the US has not made any solid evidence public to justify the strikes.

Donald Trump has given unclear signals on Venezuela, sometimes suggesting military action on the ground is an option but also insisting he isn’t planning attacks inside the country. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro made it clear that his country would push back against any foreign military moves. Experts reportedly suggest the US has multiple ways to target Venezuela, with most strategies relying on air and naval forces instead of sending in ground troops. The US has recently moved a large number of ships and aircraft to the Caribbean near Venezuela, including the massive USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier. However, almost all experts agree a ground invasion is highly unlikely. A full-scale ground attack would probably be unpopular in the US and face significant domestic hurdles.

Some in Washington hope a military strike could bring political change in Venezuela, but it could also produce uncertain outcomes. Elias Ferrer, lead editor of a Venezuelan media organisation, told Al Jazeera that an attack would open a “Pandora’s box”, potentially empowering the military or armed groups to seize parts of the country and trigger unpredictable outcomes. At the same time, experts warn that even a limited US attack might temporarily strengthen Maduro’s hold on power.

What are Venezuela’s chances against a U.S. attack? Even with billions spent on weapons and security from Russia, Iran, China, and Cuba, experts believe the country would struggle to fend off a full-scale U.S. assault. Maduro is said to stay on the move and change phones often to protect himself. Trump is said to have given Maduro an ultimatum to step down during a phone call between the two on November 21.

US actions against Venezuela could have wider effects across the region. Trump recently singled out drug-producing countries like Colombia as potential targets, raising concerns that political issues could be recast as “narco-terrorism” to justify military or law enforcement action.