Bab el-Mandeb Strait Could Become Next Economic Flashpoint

Think of the world’s economy as a house with only two main doors. Right now, Iran has slammed the first one—the Strait of Hormuz—shut, cutting off a massive chunk of the planet's energy and sending prices through the roof. But while everyone is panicking about that first door, experts are staring at the second one: the Bab el-Mandeb. If that one locks too, we aren't just looking at a crisis; we're looking at a world that’s completely trapped.

Things escalated on March 28 when the Houthis, the armed group that controls much of northern Yemen and is backed by Iran, fired missiles at Israel, marking their first direct strike since the latest Middle East conflict began. Yemen sits along this key strait, giving the group a strategic spot in the region.

Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow strait, about 30 kilometres wide at its closest point, lying between Yemen and the African nations of Eritrea and Djibouti. Along with the Suez Canal, this strait serves as a crucial shortcut, letting ships move straight from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The strait has connected East Africa, Arabia, and South Asia for a long time. After the Suez Canal opened in 1869, ships could reach Europe much faster through the Mediterranean instead of sailing all the way around Africa, making Bab el-Mandeb very important.

Even in normal times, around 14% of the world’s shipping passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with a large share carrying fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in 2025, roughly 4.2 million barrels of oil and petroleum products moved through the strait each day—about 5% of global production. Experts say the Bab el-Mandeb Strait cannot be completely blocked, as it is still wide enough for ships to pass through. It is also not a dead-end route like the Strait of Hormuz, and vessels can continue toward the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. However, experts note this offers little relief for ships heading to Asia, which would have to take the longer route around Africa—adding weeks to the journey.

The Houthis began attacking Israel and ships in the Red Sea in response to the war in Gaza. Strikes on commercial vessels, including those linked to the US and UK, forced many ships to avoid the area and take the longer route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. This also led to joint naval patrols and airstrikes in Yemen. Although tensions eased after ceasefire moves in 2025, the situation showed how easily the group could disrupt a key global shipping route and energy supplies.

Analysts say if tensions around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait continue, the effects could spread globally. Prolonged disruption would likely raise shipping costs, push oil prices higher, and put extra pressure on an already fragile global economy, especially with ongoing concerns in the Strait of Hormuz.